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A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.

“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.

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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

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On Wednesday the UK’s Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) ruled against Midnite following an investigation into a paid TikTok advertisement featuring an AI-generated character who appeared to be under the age of 25 and engaging in gambling activity. 

The ASA reviewed a clip posted to TikTok in July promoting Midnite, a Gibraltar-based online casino app. The clip displayed a young-looking man using the app, accompanied by the voiceover: “Another massive World Cup upset. Bet £10 on the big match and get £30 in free bets. Level up your World Cup with Midnite, get on it.”

According to the ASA’s Code for gambling advertising, anyone who “was, or seemed to be, under 25 years of age” must not be depicted gambling or playing a significant role in advertisements.