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His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.
The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.
But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.
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A deepfake gambling advertisement claiming the father of Canadian soccer star Alphonso Davies was arrested over CA$3 million in purported online casino winnings is shining a spotlight on grey-market enforcement in Alberta’s newly regulated iGaming market.
According to reporting by The Edmonton Sun, an advertiser operating under the name “Prime Spin Zone” placed an ad on Instagram showing Davies’ father being arrested by Edmonton police.
The video shows a vault filled with cash, followed by a scene where Davies’ father is released after police allegedly determine the money came from legitimate gambling, the ad claims.
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“By bringing together official data, live streaming, league IP, integrity services and the reach of our Legend media network, we are helping Polymarket deliver a differentiated and trusted experience for sports fans across the US.”
Genius signed deals with both Polymarket and Kalshi in August, to provide real-time event data and league integrity services, as well as streaming services. Fellow data provider Sportradar also announced similar multi-year partnerships with both Kalshi and Polymarket in June.
Initial reaction from investors was largely unfavourable. Genius shares plunged 13% on 18 Sept., falling 17% for the week. The data provider closed the session at $5.64 per share, well below the $6.19 price when it announced the Legend acquisition in February.
