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About Lucky Dragons
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
What is Lucky Dragons?
NSW government figures classify poker machines as the most harmful gambling format in the state, yet clubs continue to operate approximately 65,000 poker machines, benefiting substantially from tax rebates through the scheme.
Green MP Cate Faehrmann has criticised the arrangement, highlighting a conflict of interest where clubs reduce their tax liabilities while simultaneously cultivating community goodwill.
She called the proposed changes “tinkering around the edges”. She questioned whether ClubGRANTS genuinely supports community projects, or functions as an indirect subsidy that lessens scrutiny of gaming revenue.
What is Lucky Dragons?
Americans wagered nearly $167 billion on sports in 2025 through regulated sportsbooks, an 11% increase year-over-year, according to data from the American Gaming Association (AGA).
The blurring line between financial investing and gambling has been accelerated by the rise of prediction markets—exchanges offering event contracts that are federally regulated as financial derivatives. U.S. News found that over 40% of active sports bettors now also participate in sports prediction markets.
Financial advisors continue to urge consumers to view sports wagering strictly as entertainment and to only risk funds they can afford to lose.
