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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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Harrison Barrett, VP of business development, spoke to the iGB team at iGB L!VE 2026 to discuss the evolution of Soft2Bet’s MEGA platform, which started out as a purely gamification layer but has become “much more compelling than simply leaderboards, missions and point-based rewards”.
As Barrett puts it, MEGA is “ultimately a retention tool that helps our partners move away from heavy bonus and costs”.
With ice hockey and UFC-themed initiatives driving engagement in North America and a 45% lifetime value increase seen with the launch of MEGA Shoot, a player-versus-player simulation penalty shootout game initiative which launched during the World Cup, it is an exciting time for the Malta-based platform provider.
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The CFTC’s move also comes as other US regulators continue to craft their own crypto policies. The agency and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) jointly issued an interpretation in March on how certain crypto assets would be treated under federal securities laws.
A lot of bigger questions remain without the CLARITY Act. The bill aimed to establish a federal framework for digital commodities and delineate the roles of the SEC and the CFTC.
Its failure also leaves unresolved disputes over prediction markets and state and tribal gaming authorities, outside a comprehensive congressional framework. Those issues took on new significance during Senate floor debate over the bill, as concerns about federal commodities oversight extended to markets typically regulated at the state or tribal level.